WHY BREXIT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN AT ALL:
THERE ARE REASONS TO DOUBT WHETHER THE DECISION BY
BRITISH VOTERS TO
LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, A MOVE SUPPORTED BY BORIS
JOHNSON, THE FORMER
MAYOR OF LONDON, WILL EVER BE IMPLEMENTED
AS I NOTED ON FRIDAY, BRITAIN WON’T BE EXITING THE E.U. ANYTIME SOON. IF AND
AS I NOTED ON FRIDAY, BRITAIN WON’T BE EXITING THE E.U. ANYTIME SOON. IF AND
WHEN THE U.K. GOVERNMENT INVOKES ARTICLE 50 OF THE LISBON TREATY OF
2007,
WHICH GRANTS MEMBER STATES THE RIGHT TO LEAVE, THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST
TWO YEARS OF NEGOTIATIONS ABOUT THE TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE
RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE. AND THAT INVOCATION OF ARTICLE 50 IS LIKELY TO
BE DELAYED FOR QUITE A WHILE.
RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE. AND THAT INVOCATION OF ARTICLE 50 IS LIKELY TO
BE DELAYED FOR QUITE A WHILE.
PRIME MINISTER DAVID CAMERON’S DECISION TO RESIGN IN THE FALL HAS STOPPED
THE CLOCK UNTIL A NEW LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY IS ELECTED
TO
REPLACE HIM, WHICH WON’T BE UNTIL THE START OF SEPTEMBER. EVEN
IF BORIS
JOHNSON, THE FORMER MAYOR OF LONDON, WHO HELPED LEAD THE
LEAVE CAMPAIGN,
WERE TO WIN THE LEADERSHIP VOTE ( NOT LIKELY NOW) , IT’S
NOT CLEAR WHEN HE
WOULD INVOKE ARTICLE 50. IN A COLUMN FOR THE TELEGRAPH
ON MONDAY, JOHNSON
SAID THAT BRITAIN’S DEPARTURE FROM THE E.U. “WILL NOT
COME IN ANY GREAT RUSH.”
INDEED, HIS PRIMARY INTENTION SEEMED TO BE TO
PREVENT PANIC. “I CANNOT STRESS
TOO MUCH THAT BRITAIN IS PART OF EUROPE,
AND ALWAYS WILL BE,” HE WROTE.
AS SOMEONE WHO HAS WATCHED JOHNSON’S RISE, WITH AMUSEMENT, SINCE HE WAS
AS SOMEONE WHO HAS WATCHED JOHNSON’S RISE, WITH AMUSEMENT, SINCE HE WAS
A
JOURNALIST LIVING IN BRUSSELS AND WRITING SCARE STORIES ABOUT THE
EUROPEAN
UNION FOR THE TELEGRAPH, I WOULDN’T NECESSARILY TAKE ANYTHING
HE SAYS AT
FACE VALUE. IN THIS INSTANCE, THOUGH, HE MAY HAVE INADVERTENTLY
TOLD THE
TRUTH. FOUR DAYS AFTER THE BRITISH PUBLIC VOTED, NARROWLY, TO
LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION, THERE ARE REASONS TO DOUBT THAT THE REFERENDUM
RESULT WILL
EVER BE IMPLEMENTED.
IF CAMERON HAD INVOKED ARTICLE 50 ON FRIDAY MORNING, BRITAIN WOULD NOW BE
IF CAMERON HAD INVOKED ARTICLE 50 ON FRIDAY MORNING, BRITAIN WOULD NOW BE
ON ITS WAY OUT: THE EXIT PROCESS IS IRREVERSIBLE. BUT THANKS TO THE
PRIME
MINISTER’S CLEVER MANEUVER—WHICH IS SURELY WHAT IT WAS—THE COUNTRY
HAS
SOME TIME TO REFLECT ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT, WHICH ARE
ALREADY
TURNING OUT TO BE FAR MORE SERIOUS THAN MANY OF THE PEOPLE WHO
VOTED
LEAVE REALIZED. IN ADDITION TO PLUNGING THE COUNTRY’S POLITICAL
SYSTEM INTO
CHAOS, THE REFERENDUM RESULT HAS PROMPTED A BIG FALL IN THE
STOCK MARKET
AND THE VALUE OF THE POUND STERLING, AND IT HAS RAISED
QUESTIONS ABOUT
BRITAIN’S CREDITWORTHINESS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT, NEWS CAME OUT THAT STANDARD & POOR’S HAD STRIPPED
ON MONDAY NIGHT, NEWS CAME OUT THAT STANDARD & POOR’S HAD STRIPPED
BRITAIN OF ITS TRIPLE-A CREDIT RATING, ANOTHER
BLOW TO INVESTORS. ORDINARY
PEOPLE MAY BE MORE CONCERNED THAT, WITH THE
SCHOOL HOLIDAYS COMING UP,
THE COST OF TAKING A EUROPEAN VACATION, WHICH
MANY BRITS OF ALL SOCIAL
CLASSES DO EVERY YEAR, HAS JUMPED BY ABOUT
TWELVE PER CENT.
SO FAR, THEN, THE LEAVE VOTE HAS MADE PEOPLE POORER, CONFIRMING SOME
SO FAR, THEN, THE LEAVE VOTE HAS MADE PEOPLE POORER, CONFIRMING SOME
OF
THE WARNINGS THAT THE BRITISH TREASURY AND OTHER SUPPORTERS OF THE
REMAIN
SIDE HAD ISSUED. GOING THROUGH WITH BREXIT WOULD ALSO HAVE MORE
LASTING
IMPLICATIONS FOR BRITISH BUSINESSES, PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE
COUNTRY’S
ENORMOUS FINANCIAL SECTOR. TALK OF BIG EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN
BANKS
QUITTING THE CITY OF LONDON, WHICH BY MANY MEASURES IS THE WORLD’S
LARGEST
FINANCIAL HUB, ARE EXAGGERATED. BUT THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT SOME
JOBS WOULD
BE RELOCATED TO PLACES LIKE DUBLIN, FRANKFURT, AND PARIS.
“THE FINANCIAL CENTER WON’T DIE, BUT IT WILL GET WEAKER,” JOHN CRYAN,
“THE FINANCIAL CENTER WON’T DIE, BUT IT WILL GET WEAKER,” JOHN CRYAN,
THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF DEUTSCHE BANK,
WHICH EMPLOYS ABOUT ELEVEN
THOUSAND PEOPLE IN LONDON, SAID ON MONDAY.
SOME RESPECTED ECONOMISTS ARE NOW PREDICTING AN ECONOMY-WIDE RECESSION,
SOME RESPECTED ECONOMISTS ARE NOW PREDICTING AN ECONOMY-WIDE RECESSION,
AND THEN THERE IS THE FUTURE OF THE BRITISH UNION, WHICH IS
MUCH MORE ANCIENT
THAN THE EUROPEAN UNION. AS THE PRO-BREXIT WRITER FRASER
NELSON POINTED OUT
AT THE SPECTATOR ON MONDAY, IT IS AN EXAGGERATION TO SAY
THAT A BRITISH
DEPARTURE FROM THE E.U. WOULD INEVITABLY LEAD SCOTLAND TO
DECLARE
INDEPENDENCE FROM THE U.K.—DATA FROM OPINION POLLS DOESN’T
POINT IN
ONLY ONE DIRECTION.
IT CAN’T BE DENIED, THOUGH, THAT BREXIT WOULD CREATE THE BIGGEST CRISIS
IN
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND SINCE THE 1707 ACTS OF
UNION, AND IT WOULD ALSO RAISE SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF
NORTHERN IRELAND, WHICH RECEIVES A LOT OF FUNDING FROM BRUSSELS, AND
WHICH, LIKE SCOTLAND, VOTED TO REMAIN.
IF LEAVE SUPPORTERS COULD HAVE FORESEEN THE RESULT OF THEIR VOTES,
IF LEAVE SUPPORTERS COULD HAVE FORESEEN THE RESULT OF THEIR VOTES,
HOW
MANY WOULD HAVE CHANGED SIDES? VOX-POP INTERVIEWS CONDUCTED IN
THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND INDICATED THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THEM WERE
HAVING SECOND
THOUGHTS. AND ONE PROMINENT BREXIT CAMPAIGNER HAS WAVERED,
AS WELL. “WHEN
I PUT MY CROSS AGAINST LEAVE I FELT A SURGE AS THOUGH FOR THE
FIRST TIME
IN MY LIFE MY VOTE DID COUNT. I HAD POWER,” KELVIN MACKENZIE, THE
FORMER
EDITOR OF THE SUN, BRITAIN’S BIGGEST-SELLING NEWSPAPER, WROTE ON
MONDAY.
“FOUR DAYS LATER, I DON’T FEEL QUITE THE SAME. I HAVE BUYER’S REMORSE.
A
SENSE OF BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR. TO BE TRUTHFUL I AM FEARFUL OF
WHAT
LIES AHEAD.”
AS REALITY SETS IN, E.U. LEADERS MAY WELL BE CONTENT TO LET THE BRITS STEW IN
AS REALITY SETS IN, E.U. LEADERS MAY WELL BE CONTENT TO LET THE BRITS STEW IN
THEIR OWN JUICES FOR A WHILE. INITIAL TALK OF FORCING THE U.K. TO
BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF LEAVING STRAIGHT AWAY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY CALLS
FOR PATIENCE.
MONDAY’S EDITION OF THE WALL STREET JOURNAL QUOTED
ANGELA MERKEL’S CHIEF
OF STAFF, PETER ALTMAIER, AS SAYING, “POLITICIANS IN
LONDON SHOULD HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY TO THINK AGAIN ABOUT THE FALLOUT FROM
AN EXIT.” TO LEAVE NOW,
HE ADDED, “WOULD BE A DEEP CUT WITH
FAR-REACHING CONSEQUENCES.”
A MAJORITY OF THE POLITICIANS AT WESTMINSTER
PROBABLY AGREE WITH
ALTMAIER’S ANALYSIS. BUT WHAT, IF ANYTHING, CAN THEY
DO TO REVERSE
THE MARCH TOWARD BREXIT?
ONE POSSIBILITY BEING FLOATED BY SOME PRO-E.U. CAMPAIGNERS IS A VOTE IN
ONE POSSIBILITY BEING FLOATED BY SOME PRO-E.U. CAMPAIGNERS IS A VOTE IN
THE HOUSE OF COMMONS AGAINST INVOKING ARTICLE 50. DURING THE
WEEKEND,
A NUMBER OF CONSTITUTIONAL EXPERTS POINTED OUT THAT, UNDER THE
BRITISH
SYSTEM, SOVEREIGNTY RESTS IN PARLIAMENT, AND SO THE LEAVE VOTE WAS
PURELY
ADVISORY. “MPS ARE ENTITLED TO VOTE AGAINST IT, AND ARE BOUND TO
VOTE AGAINST
IT, IF THEY THINK IT’S IN BRITAIN’S BEST INTEREST,” GEOFFREY
ROBERTSON, A
PROMINENT BRITISH BARRISTER, TOLD THE INDEPENDENT. “IT’S NOT OVER
YET.”TO
BE SURE, IT’S NOT. BUT PARLIAMENT SIMPLY OVERRIDING THE RESULT OF
THE
REFERENDUM MAY NOT BE A REALISTIC OPTION. MORE THAN SEVENTEEN
MILLION
PEOPLE VOTED LEAVE. IF THEIR PREFERENCES WERE TO BE IGNORED, CIVIL
UNREST
COULD WELL RESULT. AS CAMERON SAID IN ANNOUNCING HIS INTENTION TO
RESIGN,
“THE BRITISH PEOPLE HAVE VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, AND
THEIR WILL
MUST BE RESPECTED.”
A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME IS A GENERAL ELECTION, A SECOND REFERENDUM, OR
A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME IS A GENERAL ELECTION, A SECOND REFERENDUM, OR
BOTH.
IN 2011, BRITAIN SWITCHED TO A SYSTEM OF FIVE-YEAR FIXED-TERM
PARLIAMENTS, AND UNDER THAT SYSTEM THE NEXT ELECTION ISN’T DUE UNTIL 2020.
BUT THE BREXIT CRISIS HAS ALREADY GENERATED CALLS FOR THE FIXED TERM TO BE
JUNKED.
IN THE COMMONS ON MONDAY, NICK CLEGG, THE FORMER LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS, WHO SERVED AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER FROM 2010 TO 2015,
CALLED
FOR AN EARLY ELECTION. CAMERON DIDN’T REJECT THE IDEA. HE SAID THAT IT
WOULD BE FOR HIS SUCCESSOR, THE NEXT LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY,
TO
DECIDE.
MOST OF THE BRITISH POLITICIANS AND COMMENTATORS I’VE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS THINK THAT JOHNSON WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME
MINISTER. BUT
IT’S FAR FROM CERTAIN THAT HE COULD DELIVER WHAT HE HAS BEEN
PROMISING:
A BREAK FROM THE E.U. THAT PRESERVES BRITAIN’S FULL ACCESS TO
THE SINGLE
MARKET. SEVERAL EUROPEAN OFFICIALS HAVE ALREADY SAID THAT THE
PRICE OF
SUCH A DEAL WOULD BE BRITAIN AGREEING TO FREE MOVEMENT OF
LABOR
(AS NORWAY, WHICH IS A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA BUT
NOT
OF THE E.U., DOES). HOWEVER, RESTRICTING IMMIGRATION WAS A CENTRAL
PLANK
OF THE LEAVE CAMPAIGN.
IF JOHNSON COULDN’T GUARANTEE BRITISH FIRMS ACCESS TO THE HUGE
IF JOHNSON COULDN’T GUARANTEE BRITISH FIRMS ACCESS TO THE HUGE
EUROPEAN
MARKET, WOULD HE STILL SUPPORT LEAVING THE E.U.? EVEN HE
MIGHT HAVE TROUBLE
ANSWERING THAT QUESTION WITH AN ENTHUSIASTIC “YES.”
ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT CAMERON’S RESIGNATION CAUGHT JOHNSON UNPREPARED.
SHOULD HE MOVE INTO
10 DOWNING STREET, HE WOULD FACE DISSIDENT
BACKBENCHERS IN HIS OWN PARTY, AND CRIES FOR AN EARLY ELECTION WOULD BE
HARD TO RESIST.
BACKBENCHERS IN HIS OWN PARTY, AND CRIES FOR AN EARLY ELECTION WOULD BE
HARD TO RESIST.
IF ONE WERE
CALLED, THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS AND THE LABOUR PARTY, WHICH BY
THEN MAY WELL
HAVE A NEW AND MORE CREDIBLE LEADER TO REPLACE JEREMY
CORBYN, WOULD PROBABLY CAMPAIGN ON A PLATFORM THAT PROMISED ANOTHER REFERENDUM.
THE OPPOSITION PARTIES WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL OF SUPPORT IN
THIS FROM THE U.K. BUSINESS COMMUNITY, AND FROM THE DISSIDENT TORIES.
CORBYN, WOULD PROBABLY CAMPAIGN ON A PLATFORM THAT PROMISED ANOTHER REFERENDUM.
THE OPPOSITION PARTIES WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL OF SUPPORT IN
THIS FROM THE U.K. BUSINESS COMMUNITY, AND FROM THE DISSIDENT TORIES.
AT THIS STAGE, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY HOW ALL OF THIS WILL PLAY OUT: THERE
ARE TOO MANY VARIABLES. WHEN I STARTED WORKING ON THIS POST, MY
GUESS WAS
THAT THE ODDS OF BREXIT ULTIMATELY HAPPENING WERE ABOUT
FIFTY-FIFTY, AND
POSSIBLY LESS. IN THE COURSE OF WRITING, I SPOKE TO A
COUPLE OF PRO-E.U.
PEOPLE IN LONDON WHOSE OPINIONS I RESPECT, AND BOTH OF
THEM SAID THAT I WAS
BEING TOO OPTIMISTIC. PASSIONS HAVE BEEN INFLAMED,
THEY POINTED OUT, AND MANY
OF THE PLAYERS HAVE STAKED OUT POSITIONS THAT
LIMIT THEIR FLEXIBILITY.MAYBE I’VE
FALLEN VICTIM TO WISHFUL THINKING; I HOPE
NOT. THE BRITAIN I GREW UP IN TOOK PRIDE
IN ITS COMMON SENSE AND PRAGMATISM.
AFFINITIES FOR IDEOLOGY AND POLITICAL
EXTREMISM WERE REGARDED AS SUSPECT,
EUROPEAN QUALITIES. FOR THE SAKE
OF BRITAIN, AND ALSO OF EUROPE, I HOPE THAT MY COUNTRYMEN AND
COUNTRYWOMEN REDISCOVER THEIR MODEST VIRTUES BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE.
WATCHING FROM AFAR,IT’S CLEAR THAT A MISTAKE HAS BEEN MADE, AND THAT IT’S
TIME FOR A RETHINK.
OF BRITAIN, AND ALSO OF EUROPE, I HOPE THAT MY COUNTRYMEN AND
COUNTRYWOMEN REDISCOVER THEIR MODEST VIRTUES BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE.
WATCHING FROM AFAR,IT’S CLEAR THAT A MISTAKE HAS BEEN MADE, AND THAT IT’S
TIME FOR A RETHINK.
SOURCE: JOHN CASSIDY
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At the Friday Weißwurst breakfast at work I asked my colleagues what they thought about women's quotas. Next to me sat the colleague who applied for the same job as me, and he got the job we both applied for. I instead got a newly created position which was for me surprisingly including leadership. It went better than expected. This is exactly the effect of the German government's mandatory goals. Opposite to me at the Weißwurst breakfast there was a female colleague who was, however, reacting a bit negatively. She said that she absolutely not wanted to be promoted because of her gender. I think what she needs to realize is that if we want to solve the problem with women in management positions we need to embrace the opportunity that the government offers us. It will feel a little bit funny but we are part of fixing a problem. 
